EV's Face Potential Power and Lithium Shortages
shutting down coal and nuclear power have consequences. lithium is not plentiful
We recently bought a Tesla model Y and are generally happy with the car. It delivers on the promise of reliable EV, provided the grid is there to feed the batteries. So far so good. We didn’t buy it because of the “global warming” hoax, to “save the environment” and other worthless virtue signaling — we were more practical — for our situation, the benefits of EV outweighed the risks.
Here’s what we like about EV cars
Low maintenance, no oil changes, tuneups, etc. Mechanical parts like seats and windows, tires, etc. are the only things to worry about, so you won’t need to visit the auto shop much if ever (just replace old tires). The frame and core motors should be good for 500k to 1m miles here in California.
Elon Musk said in a tweet: “Model 3 drive unit & body is designed like a commercial truck for a million mile life. Current battery modules should last 300k to 500k miles (1500 cycles). Replacing modules (not pack) will only cost $5k to $7k.”
Great performance. It’s a rocket ship! And quiet enough to need to be careful around wildlife in rural areas that might not hear you coming.
Potential for future software upgrades like self driving and other features over the years.
Range is about 300 miles, good enough for “around town”. Extended travel needs more planning than ten minutes at a gas station on every corner, you need to plan so you “fill up” while you sleep or eat lunch, hopefully.
If batteries are kept between 20-90% of full charge and we slow charge (not rapid charge), they should last 1000-1500 cycles with 80% of capacity at 20 years…still very usable. This compares with the 10,000 cycles we will get from the LiFePo batts at the ranch. Still, if we charge our Tesla every week, that’s almost 20 years of expected life. We’re in our 60’s, so you could say this is a “lifetime car”! With future self driving capabilities, it’s ideal for retirement age people.
Electricity is much more fungible than gasoline, it can be transported in a flash, provided you have a solid grid. If you are working out of your home, solar panels are an ideal way to “lock in” your electricity costs, especially in California where sunshine is plentiful. Panels should last at least 20 years, matching the life of your EV. EV are a hedge against future gasoline supply disruptions, especially if you have enough solar panels to charge up when the sun is out.
What we don’t like
We’d like to see the trifecta of battery life, charging speed and capacity/weight improved. If each can double at today’s costs, EV’s would be fantastic — this should be within reach assuming new battery chemistry is developed.
Lithium is a limited supply element on Earth. Only 8 elements make up 98% of the crust and lithium isn’t on that list. Lithium is number 33; there is less Lithium than tungsten, vanadium, rubidium, neodymium and cobalt, among others. This means it will be expensive and un-affordable for the masses unless a new battery chemistry is developed using more common elements. Of course if the goal is for people to “own nothing and be happy”, EV with lithium is one path to get there.
The car has self driving capability and that means it can be hacked for “remote control”. Reference Michael Hastings crashed Mercedes and Wikileaks Vault 7 leak on agency self driving hacks. It no doubt has a remotely controlled by someone off switch and could easily have a geo-fence to keep you from driving outside a certain zone. But that’s a conspiracy theory.
Fire could still be an issue, we park ours outside.
Economics depends on electric grid rates, which as we have seen from Germany, could skyrocket, unless you have your own power source (solar).
Environmental damage and cost of battery production. Lithium mining and refining can be a nasty business and parts of the battery need cobalt. It’s also well known that a lot of electricity is generated from coal, so you might as well be driving a coal powered car.
EV’s are dependent on a functioning grid and we’ve already seen indications of potential problems, either from natural interruptions (which affect gasoline as well), political idiocy, or technical issues. It’s still early days, but the tech is solid and good enough for many applications.
The EV Success/Lithium Problem, aka “You Vill Eatz Zee Bugs”
What happens when everyone races out to buy an EV and needs to charge? Can the grid handle it? Is there enough lithium to even make the batteries?
Estimates currently put total EV currently in the US at 3 million vehicles and this is forecast to go to 26m by 2030. There are two issues with the grid; generation capacity and deliver-ability and then there is the lithium supply issue.
As for the grid, many experts believe there is enough generating capacity and the grip operators are capable of sorting everything out. While LED and Energy Saver appliances cut electricity demand from households, and offshoring industry cut huge industrial demand in the US, air conditioning and EV’s will increase demand.
With regard to lithium, that’s going to be more difficult, as EV batteries require some of the highest quality lithium from the ground. The globalists at WEF have pointed this out:
The IEA says the world could face lithium shortages by 2025. And Credit Suisse says lithium demand could treble between 2020 and 2025, meaning “supply would be stretched”.
Campaign group Transport and Environment says there is only enough lithium to produce up to 14 million EVs in 2023, Reuters reports. Given the trajectory of EV sales, as shown in the chart below, that could leave many would-be buyers empty handed.
Clearly, not everyone will be able to afford to own an EV, the fortunate ones will rent one with their Uber and a lot of people might not be able to afford to leave their UBI subsidized homes. This of course fits into the WEF thesis of “You will own nothing and be happy”.